![]() ![]() If gambler had the edge EV would be positive. It is negative because house has the edge and not the gambler. This happens 1/36 = approximately 2.7778% of the time. On a don't pass line bet there is a possibility of a tie whenever a hard 12 (6-6) is thrown on the first roll of the dice. The probability of profitting by 10 units before losing 10 units is (100% - 57.004% = 42.996%).Ī gambler is at a 1.36% disadvantage in the game of craps on a don't pass line bet. 'Expected Value': -1.41 (which is equivalent to a win rate of 49.295%)Īfter 'Compute Risk of Ruin' is clicked 57.004% is displayed, which is the probability of losing 10 units before profitting by 10 units.'Units Profit For Success': 10 (10 is default value).'Units to Risk': 10 (10 is default value).To compute risk of losing 10 units, make these inputs and then click 'Compute Risk of Ruin': ![]() If he wins 10 units he is done and likewise if he loses 10 units he is done. Assume gambler wants to increase his bankroll by 10 units by playing the pass line in craps but only is willing to risk 10 units. ![]() On a pass line bet there is no possibility of a tie. Risk of Ruin Calculator Units to Risk Units Profit Tie RateĪ gambler is at a 1.41% disadvantage in the game of craps on a pass line bet. This occurs when negative expected value (or win rate less than 50%) is input with a large 'Units to Risk' and/or 'Units Profit For Success'. In these cases a limiting estimate is computed. However, it is possible that some inputs can result in numbers outside of the range that can be normally interpreted by a computer. There are no statistical methods involved. This is a purely mathematical calculation. These 2 inputs are interchangeable and inputtingĮither one automatically updates the value of the other. Once probability of a tie is input then either EV or win rate can be input toĬomplete the needed information. Prob(win in %) + prob(loss in %) + prob(tie in %) = 100%Įxpected value (EV in %) = prob(win in %) - prob(loss in %) (probabilities are expressed in percent) is below: Is the probability of a win, loss, or tie. There is one more set of (related) variables that affects player's chances and that Goal, at which point he'll accept his profit. Such a game given how much player is willing to risk trying to reach a predetermined This calculator mathematically computes the probability of success/failure in His bankroll by a number of units, but he is only willing to risk a setĪmount of units in trying to achieve his goal. Player decidesīefore he begins playing that he would like to increase If he ties then his bankroll remains unchanged. Then his bankroll increases by 1 unit and if he loses it decreases byġ unit. The copy-paste of the page "Expected Value of Winning" or any of its results, is allowed as long as you cite dCode!Ĭite as source (bibliography): Expected Value of Winning on dCode.Risk of ruin for fixed wager, fixed EV, and even money payoffĬonsider a game in which the player always bets 1 unit. Except explicit open source licence (indicated Creative Commons / free), the "Expected Value of Winning" algorithm, the applet or snippet (converter, solver, encryption / decryption, encoding / decoding, ciphering / deciphering, translator), or the "Expected Value of Winning" functions (calculate, convert, solve, decrypt / encrypt, decipher / cipher, decode / encode, translate) written in any informatic language (Python, Java, PHP, C#, Javascript, Matlab, etc.) and all data download, script, or API access for "Expected Value of Winning" are not public, same for offline use on PC, mobile, tablet, iPhone or Android app! Ask a new question Source codeĭCode retains ownership of the "Expected Value of Winning" source code. The reasoning is the same for a die roll where a player will win 6 times his bet when he predicts the correct number. There are a total of two (2) events as possible: either the piece is on HEADS, or it is on TAILS.Įxpected value: (2-1) * 1 / 2-1 * 1/2 = 0 There is one (1) winning event: the piece is returned on TAILS. Example: In the coin toss game, the player bets on TAILS, if he loses, he loses his bet, if he wins, he wins twice his bet. ![]()
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